Upcoming Assembly Elections of 2018-19 are seen as the semi-finals of 2019 Parliamentary Elections.
In the states going to Assembly polls, the results of the Assembly elections will have an exaggerated impact on the winner’s performance in the Lok Sabha Elections 2019.
Following are the details of Upcoming Assembly Elections in India 2018-19.
Chhattisgarh – After the formation of new party by Ajit Jogi (who was the former Chief Minister from the Indian National Congress party), the scenario has changed.
Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly has 90 seats in total. Jogi has a very strong vote bank base in Marwahi area i.e. (Mungeli & Bilaspur district). The election of 2018 in Chhattisgarh will be the closest one. Both the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress are evenly matched in the BJP rules state. BJP has always formed a government in Chhattisgarh by winning with a very thin margin and in 2013 the vote share difference between Congress and BJP was 0.73% the closest ever. Even at one point Congress was ahead with leading in 47 states in Chhattisgarh but as result were out, it was BJP which won 49 seats and the Congress tally was reduced to 39 in the 2013 election.
Building up Political Perceptions
However, things have changed to another level especially after former Congress CM Ajit Jogi formed his new party Janata Congress Chhattisgarh in 2016, where his both wife Dr. Renu Jogi and son Amit Jogi were MLAs. Many people who are unaware of political scenario in Chhattisgarh will assume that this time there will be triangular fight in Chhattisgarh and Jogi will cut into Congress votes can be sadly mistaken, as its predictably said that Jogi will not only cut into Congress votes but Also BJP votes too in many reserved seats.
There is huge anti-incumbency against the 15 year Raman Singh led BJP government and with several disagreements, this time won’t be an easy way out for BJP to sweep elections. To form a government for the fourth time is not an easy task and especially when Congress is growing stronger day by day after the ouster of Ajit Jogi after a perception has been built up that Jogi will not become CM if Congress comes to power as Jogi is no more in Congress. A plus point for Congress, but Congress should also be wary of BSP and Janata Congress, which may spoil their vote share.
To predict a win for a particular party in Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections at this stage would be too premature with BJP having several challenges ahead.
Madhya Pradesh – It’s time for the tough battle to be fought in the centre of the country in 2018. Elections in Madhya Pradesh this time is going to revolve around Congress and BJP. While SP (Samajwadi Party) and BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party), might look to enter into a battleground. It will do so only with a very small share or will boost the fortune of Congress party by allying with them.
The Congress though seems to have performed well in the elections across this year- a big by-poll win in Rajasthan and a good performance in Gujarat with the fact that it managed to retain its seats in MP. The Congress was able to snatch only 2 of the 6 by-poll seats from BJP since 2014 while BJP out of its 9 By-poll wins snatched two from Congress. The battle for Madhya Pradesh seems tough with Congress trying to play hard to come into power by re-arranging its unit while the BJP is also fighting hard to hold on to their state with certain drop in the wavelength of the party.
Scheduled to be held in November, the Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly elections for 2018 are a significant part of the Indian democracy as the state sends 29 members to Lok Sabha and 11 members to Rajya Sabha to re-present the state in the Parliament. Current CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan has held the position since 2005 earlier held by Uma Bharti in 2003 followed by Babulal Gaur. In the last elections held in 2013, BJP won with 165 seats while Congress was restricted to 58 seats.
The win for BJP was predicted at that time, but with current challenges built up for the party, BJP with MP as its strongest centers will try hard to retain it.
Rajasthan – India’s largest state in terms of area will undergo for the Assembly Elections in the last quarter of the year 2018 or not later than early 2019 most probably. Two main parties i.e. Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress are confident of their winning and claiming that voters of the state are with them.
Summary of the State
Bharatiya Janata Party is ruling in the state and Vasundhara Raje Scindia is the Chief Minister of the state. BJP is in power from the last term and before that Congress was in the power. Rajasthan elections has a strange trend from many elections, Congress and BJP keep winning the election one by one.
As per the trend, many predictors are predicting the Congress win in the state.
Factors affecting BJP government
Anti-incumbency is the biggest factor for ruling parties and BJP is also facing the heat of same. Several issues like Reservation may make other members of the party take the benefit of the current situation. The super vote bank of BJP i.e. Rajput’s are unhappy with the Vasundhara government with the encounter of Anand Pal. Business community is another stronghold of BJP which is again unhappy with the government due to economic slowdown.
Factors Favouring BJP
The dominance of Congress in Rajasthan was broken in 1990 under Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, who ruled the state till 1998. After that we had seen an alternate Congress and BJP government till present. The wave of PM Modi and BJPs dominance in the present Indian political scene may result in something different way.
The historic rivalry between the Jat and the Rajput community, where Jats voted for Congress and Rajputs are the loyal vote bank of BJP has seen a different tale. Congress’s decision to make Ashok Gehlot who belongs to the Mali community didn’t go down well with the Jat community.
Performance of Vasundhara Government
- Bhamashah Yojna: A scheme to transfer financial and non-financial benefits of governmental schemes directly to women recipients in a transparent way.
- Jal Swavlamban Scheme: A vision to find a long-term solution for a water-sustainable Rajasthan.
All Rajasthan needs is a visionary leadership who can feel the pulse of the state and channelize energy of incredible human resource.
Mizoram – The Assembly election for Mizoram will take place in and around December 2018 and as BJP looks to make a mark in a state like other northeast states which also has key players like Congress and Mizoram National Front (MNF).
Around 95% of the state’s population is classified as scheduled Tribe declaring the state with the highest concentration of tribal people. On an average 87% of Mizos are Christians and 8% contribute to Buddhista population marking them the largest minority.
The issue of illegal immigration will be the hot topic for the upcoming elections as in 2016 illegal immigration from neighbouring Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal was addressed. BJP has initiated to detect and deport foreigners illegally entered the state from neighbouring countries. Chakmas from Bangladesh are sought after as the illegal immigrants in an appeal done by major civil societies and students association of Mizoram.
Another issue of trade and Infrastructure development is undertaken by the centre where rural ‘Haat’ with Mizoram-Myanmar will help enhance volume of trade and centre has also launched the North East Special Infrastructure Scheme (NESIS).
Another issue of Unemployment and Bru refugees are also tougher an issue.
Mizo National Front (MNF) won 1998 and 2003 state elections and the Congress has been in power since 2008 and 2013. In 2013 Elections, Congress won 34 out of 40 seats in Assembly while MNF won only five.
With several key players from Congress and MNF, it’s also interesting to see other important players in the upcoming elections in the form of new political parties and alliances which could make all the difference in the results. With elections due by the end of 2018, political alliances were forged while new political parties emerged.