All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) won the election again and Dravida Munnetra Kazhgam (DMK) could not capitalize the anti-incumbency. Also Tamil nationalist like Seeman could not even get deposit back. The proposed third front was allegedly demolished totally, which gave a fair idea of Tamils still loving Jayalalithaa.
Unlike previous elections, the elections of 2016 was multi-cornered election where number of small parties posed themselves as the change for not only the ruling ADMK but also to the opposition DMK. But still both Dravidian parties emerged victorious. This is because:
Even though the corruption charges are levelled against them, the performance of the state in economy and welfare schemes has been good. Voter base of the two parties are intact. Both the party still commands around 40% vote share.
Split in anti-incumbency votes has helped the ADMK to get the majority. Though DMK could not form the government, it improved its tally from a mere 24 to 98. DMK suffered by giving too many seats to its allies. The contested vote share of DMK is more than the ADMK. If Stalin was projected as CM and DMK contested in more seats, the results might have been different.
No credible alternative here, so when People’s Welfare Front (PWF) was formed, it was seen as an alternative by neutral voters. But the moment it announced Vijayakanth as the Chief Minister candidate, it lost its credibility and the rest is known.
All other parties which called themselves as changes were divisive in nature either by religion, caste or language. And it is good that all these parties are totally rejected by voters. For the first time in Tamil Nadu Assembly, there is a strong opposition. But the assembly is dominated only by two parties which may not be good. IN RECENT TIMES, DMK’s vote share in Tamil Nadu is 28% to 32% while Congress gets 5% to 10% usually. With the Congress slowly losing its attraction in the state due to a variety of reasons, they were not going to get anything near that glorious 10% mark that would catapult the DMK front to 42% which was needed to challenge the AIADMK.
The two Dravidian parties proved to be too strong for the others to compete with them. All scored a big duck while only the 2 big parties scored. With DMK as a strong opposition in the Assembly with 98 seats unlike the last term, the next 5 years will be interesting and could turn out to be important years for the state of Tamil Nadu.