Who will win 2019 General Elections in India, and Why

Who will win 2019 General Elections in India, and Why

The rule of the game is very simple, gain a majority and viola one is declared as the winner of 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Be it Legislative or Municipal elections, people of India are easily in commendation of the most popular and the strongest of all leaders and party and also the opposition has to refrain itself from being lost from the basic concept of being an opposition.

Key Points predicting whose winning

  1. A total of 336/543 seats in Lok Sabha, it’s supposedly said that Congress achieved this using the consolidation votes post Indira Gandhi assassination.
  2. It’s alleged that the main opposition party the Indian National Congress is in ruins ensuing severe leadership issues.
  3. The Regional political parties are also on the same ground with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ruling in 22 states, turning Indian map into saffron canvas. This can lead to denial of fact they (BJP) will play a paramount role in upcoming elections.
  4. In political backdrop of India, Uttar Pradesh is always considered strategical in deciding and predicting general elections result, which gives a crystal clear indication if this theory is to be believed.

The current justification points at an advantage towards BJP, as the party has managed to consolidate power in several state elections aiming a majority in 2019. The party might not be as strong as they are in the current parliament but will be the largest coalition and will form government in which they may lose some seats in the process.

Favour/ No Favour

Things that will not go entirely in favour of BJP

. In 2014, Congress was at its Nadir in terms of perception. Not concluding that it has got better, but that time i.e. 2014 people had anger that may have vanished in last 4-5 years.

. There will be first time voters who have not seen the negativity of 2014, so they will be a bit neutral towards Congress.

. There will be anti-incumbency against Modi government.

. BJP exhausted all seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Delhi, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand and Himachal in 2014. So these states together may give few seats.

. Uttar Pradesh looks like the challenging turf for BJP in 2019.

What may go in favour of BJP?

. Citizens of India still do not see any strong opposition person against Narendra Modi.

. There is also an absence of a strong opposition alliance.

. No declared scam in last 4 years that have set narrative against the government.

. New alliance in other states like YSR and TRS may be favourable for BJP.

Two Factor Theories

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi is said to be India’s astute politician, there comes dependency on two factors as to why Modi may win… Ram (Mandir) and Rahul (Gandhi).

The second factor, Rahul Gandhi is likely to be the face of the national Grand Alliance i.e. Mahagathbandhan…. that will present a united alternative to Modi. Though the united opposition will be a mishmash of the Congress, the ideas-bereft Left and Islamist-leaning regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Trinamool Congress (TMC), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), National Conference (NC), Janata Dal (Secular) JD(S), All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)

Rahul Gandhi needs to rectify errors and apply a fresh strategy of appointing Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Scindia as Chief Ministerial candidates for Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh respectively. As both the states have scheduled elections and anti-incumbency is growing in both.

Electoral Math

A careful calculation has been done by BJP president Amit Shah and PM Modi for 2019. An obvious big win was needed in Uttar Pradesh at least 65-70 seats or else the electoral math in 2019 will not add up.

BJP won 78/80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 in Rajasthan 25/25 in MP 27/29 AND Gujarat 26/26. These three states may not deliver the similar harvest in 2019. Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh with 59 Lok Sabha seats between them could be trouble spots too if in Maharashtra the Shiv Sena walks out of the NDA before the General Election.

Amit Shah, BJP President has applied tireless efforts in Kerala, the Northeast, Odisha and West Bengal. But the numbers here are small except for Assam and Odisha. Bengal and Kerala remain electorally embryonic for the BJP.

Must solicitation for BJP

The two silver linings are Bihar where BJP and JD (U) should sweep over 30 of the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats and Tamil Nadu where the AIADMK and Rajinikanth may offer the NDA an electoral cushion.

This won’t be enough to give BJP alone the 350 Lok Sabha seats that Shah has targeted and possibly the party may get at least 272 seats. Rahul Gandhi may be mocked for his alleged immaturity and lenient methods of politics but it would be injudicious to misconstrue either him or the pull of dynasty in still-feudal India. Rahul’s comment has prompted Modi government to flip his political strategy from pro-industry to pro-poor.

The tired old Congress-led and fed ecosystem has come roaring back to life. The must-get NDA numbers in 2019 are:

Uttar Pradesh (65); Bihar (35); Tamil Nadu (AIADMK, 25); Gujarat (20) and Maharashtra (25, minus Shiv Sena) which sums up to 170 in five key states.

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh (TDP), Odisha, Karnataka and the Northeast and the NDA’s tally could struggle to cross 300. Smaller states such as Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand and others will chip in but without big hail in Uttar Pradesh, the going will be tough for the NDA to reach the comfort zone of 300 Lok Sabha seats.

Key to 2019

The Supreme Court of India will deliver its verdict on the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Whichever way the verdict goes, Lord Ram holds the key to 2019.

The whole picture looks quiet cozy that NDA would come to power in 2019 going by the trends and the opposition in total dissray without knowing how to pull their act together. But also can BJP get a 282 again in 2019?

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