Who will win the Battleground of Chhattisgarh Assembly Election 2018?

Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2018: A straight Fight to be the Kingmaker.

Present condition        

The Assembly elections slated for November 2018 will be Raman Singh’s toughest fight. For a simple reasons that the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh would be riding on a three term incumbency; two, it is not clear as yet whose votes former CM Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) would eat into. While it is expected that Jogi’s party will damage the Congress, since he is originally from the congress, in 2013 the BJP had won 9 out of 10 seats in which the satnamis-the community that rallies behind Jogi may influence.

Raman Singh was quoted as saying that he would contest the upcoming Assembly Elections in Chhattisgarh 2018, on the development plank. The highlighted aspects says that, the increase in power generation from 4,732 MW in 2003 to 22,764 MW this year and the increase in PMGSY network from 1,072 kms in 2003 to 22,750 kms in 2018 as achievements.

Political pattern

In the 12 seats in the Bastar region, the BJP won only four. Bonus distribution of tendu leaf plucking is being given outto woo the tribal electorate besides extension of the work of RSS affiliates in tribal areas. There has been even smartphones doled out earlier on 2018 and the distribution of rice at Rs 1 per Kg previously. Bous on paddy procurement has been ordered and is being seen as the game changer in the next polls. He is confident that the BJPs vote share and seats will increase this time.

Overview

  • After the formation of new party by Ajit Jogi (former CM from Congress Party), scenario has changed.
  • Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly has 90 seats in total, and Jogi has a very strong vote bank base in Marwahi area (mungeli&bilaspur district).
  • Family support of Jogi, his wife (ex-MLA), Son (ex-MLA) will give full support.
  • Even some MLA, ex-MLA, ex MP has joined his party and who will not get ticket from BJP, Congress will join his party in future.
  • With this atleast 8-10 seats his party will win.

A tough Clash

In all, previous 3 elections there have been a very tough fight between Congress and BJP. Congress lost only by 5-6 seats.

So out of 90, for remaining 80 seats it would be difficult for both BJP and Congress to get 45 seats.

The predicted seats for BJP is approx. it will win 43-46 seats and for Congress considering Ajit Jogi to cut anti-incumbency votes, they will be near about 40 seats and precisely not more than that.  Then that would be termed as a Jogi factor.

For BJP to get a majority would be the best thing happening to the party. Congress, if in case gets 40 seats then Jogi can get into an alliance with the opposition certainly with a clause of becoming Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh. For Congress it cannot deny the clause as the party would form government after almost 15 years.

In that sense if the desired votes don’t turn out for congress, BJP would form the government.

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