Will the Trend of Incumbent Rulers Continue in Rajasthan?

Tough Contest for BJP, Congress in Rajasthan, who will win 2018 Assembly polls?

The Assembly elections held in 2013 had a pretty much favored results, where Bharatiya Janata Party had ousted the Congress and that too it was done so with a historic majority in the north-western state. Not only the state Assembly Elections, were the other electoral battles pretty much of indication that the BJP has shown the doors to Congress. The election to the state of Rajasthan with a population of 6.89 crores (as per 2011 census) and 200 assembly seats are going to be held ……………..

Now, in 2018 when the state of Rajasthan votes again for a new assembly the test is far more tougher for the ruling party as to the popularity of the government is under the judgement. The history of the governments in the state of Rajasthan has been shuffling between Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. At the time of the win of Vasundhara Raje govt the credit of the victory was given to now PM Narendra Modi. So this time around, the credibility of Modi would be even more important.

The hype of the Assembly Elections

  • Assembly Elections of 2018 is said to be the semi-finals to the Lok Sabha polls of 2019.
  • Past trends, caste/Religion equation alongwith the performance of present government and 2018     bypolls result may affect election results.
  • It’s a litmus test of the popularity of Narendra Modi.

History of Rajasthan Elections

  • The dominance of congress in Rajasthan was broken by BJP in 1990 under Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, who ruled the state till 1998.
  • After that there was a shuffling government i.e. of BJP and Congress.

Demographic Trends and Caste

  • Hinduism being the majority religion comprises of 88.49% followers.
  • Islam is the second most popular religion with approx. 9.07%.
  • Jats and Meenas the other two powerful communitiescomprise about 10% of the population of the state.

Meena community has opposed the demand of Gujjar community to be included in the Scheduled Tribe category. The historic rivalry between Jat and Rajput community shows that since the early years of Independence, Jats have voted for Congress and Rajputs generally goes with the opposition fractions.

Performance of Vasundhara Government

  • Bhamashah Yojna
  • Jal Swavlamban Scheme
  • Annapurna Milk Scheme

In the recent past, Rajasthan has been in the news for a series of Hate Crimes   and politics polarization. The political campaign during the recent by polls Alwar also provides a sign of things to come. The caste identities such as those of Jats, Rajputs and OBCs go a long way towards influencing electoral outcomes.

Much like neighboring Gujarat, farmers issue may also play a major role in the voting preferences of the rural regions.

Important Faces

Raje has gained accolades in the past for improvement in the economic environment of the state, hence BJP is banking on Vasundhara Raje and Congress is hoping that Ashok Gehlot will help the party shore up its fortunes. Sachin Pilot also holds a clean personal image and the by-polls in Alwar and Ajmer will be a major test, as Ajmer is the home turf, loss there would mean a personal setback.

All Rajasthan needs now is a visionary leadership who can feel the pulse of state and channelize energy of incredible human resource. As Rajasthan was always a two party state so there won’t be any further factors, but there can also be the feel that people may give another chance to BJP but certainly not in the name of Vasundhara Raje. As Anti-Incumbency is on the rise, and as always any election in India is based on Framers and rural constituency, these two factors may bring down BJP.Also, the projection of the respective CM candidates will play a crucial role.

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